The Speculist

Better All The Time #1

The world is getting better all the time.

That might sound a little crazy, but I firmly believe it to be true. It's been one of the underlying assumptions of this weblog since we launched it last year.

There's a reason we don't (necessarily) nod in enthusiastic agreement when someone tells us that the world is getting better. And it isn't that the media and the government and our educational insitutions and our houses of worship have conspired together to make us all "negative." The reason is that human beings are problem-solvers by nature. We are all — as individuals, as communities, as nations, and as a species — continually grasping with problems that appear to threaten all that we hold dear, if not our very existence. And while grasping with one such problem, we are often busy worrying about two or three others.

Ironically, our preoccupation with these challenges tends to blind us to the fact that we have actually been pretty darn good at solving problems and that we are likely to get even better at it. The notion that the world is getting better all the time isn't starry-eyed optimism. It's serious optimism, based on a serious reading of humanity's record of accomplishment.

With that in mind, today we launch Better All The Time, dedicated to reminding us that — all appearances and temporary setbacks to the contrary — humanity's lot is improving. We are growing in wealth, health, knowledge, and freedom. We are striving to make the world cleaner and more beautiful, and to make ourselves better people. It's a long and difficult road, but we're getting there.

Here are a few of the signposts along the way.

Item 1
British courts say women are the 'better' drivers

[NOTE: Scare quotes in original headline.]

Women, much-maligned by the opposite sex for their supposed lack of ability behind the wheel, make far safer and more law-abiding drivers than their male counterparts, British officials said.

Why this is good news:

That this announcement helps to disprove a negative stereotype about women is good news, although it would probably have been much better news a few decades ago. I doubt that particular stereotype (and many that accompany it) holds quite the same sway it used to.

Here's what excites me about this development. If we can recognize that women are statistically better drivers than men, we can identify the specific driving behaviors and strategies that set women apart and look for ways to help men learn them. It won't be easy. It will take time. But I can imagine a future in which men drive nearly as well as women.

Additionally, we can model these same behaviors when we begin developing automated driving systems. (See item 3.)

Why this is bad news:

This development is bad news for anyone who insists that there is no real difference between the sexes. Clearly there is a difference, one that we can capitalize on to make our highways safer. And there are without a doubt many other valuable skills that men could learn from women. Moreover, there may even be a few things that women could stand to learn from men.

Am I in trouble yet?

Let me just round out my PC blasphemy by suggesting that there might be some gaps that we don't want to close. There may be a few differences between men and women that we would be better off just leaving...well, different.

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Item 2
Iraqis Protest Against Shi'ite Militia in Najaf

Hundreds of Iraqis marched in Najaf Tuesday calling on militant cleric Moqtada al-Sadr to withdraw his fighters from the Shi'ite holy city.

Why this is good news:

These Iraqis are taking advantage of the freedom of speech they were denied under Saddam's rule. In calling for al-Sadr's withdrawl, they're demonstrating that they will not tolerate the co-opting of their religion — in this case, their holiest religious site — for military ends.

A very good sign, indeed.

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Item 3
Gene Block Prevents Diabetes

From BetterHumans

Inhibiting a gene involved in the development of type 1 diabetes prevents its occurrence in mice, suggesting drug strategies that can do the same in humans.

Why this is good news:

Self-explanatory.

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Item 4
Oscillatory associative memory networks promise pattern-recognition breakthrough

From KurzweilAI.net

Arizona State University researchers have come up with a new mathematical and computational model for oscillatory networks that could help unlock some of the secrets of how humans process patterns and possibly lead to smarter robots.

The new model is closer to real, oscillatory biological networks... It could mean robots or other electro-mechanical devices could recognize patterns and do some form of reasoning on the fly.

Why this is good news:

Did you ever just want to say the following to your computer: "Okay, got it? You see where I'm going with this, right? Riiiight, like the other time. Okay, great. Now take over." Our current computers have some limited capacity for this kind of thing — for example, in Microsoft Excel, after I create one row labeled Profit, all I have to do is type a P in another cell and the word Profit magically appears, conveniently highlighted so I can type over it if that wasn't what I intended.

That's pretty handy. But here's what I would like: I'm doing my expense report, and I've just entered that I stayed at such-and-such hotel from this date to that date, and I've entered the first night's stay (room charge plus state tax, plus local tax, plus inexplicable-extra-charge-for-staying-in-a-hotel.) I want the computer to jump in and go "Aha! If he paid that much the first night, he probably paid that much every other night. Let me just assume that's the case, plug in the charges for his other nights, and he can change them if he wants."

Sure, I realize there are macros that could do this, or that I could use copy and paste. That keeps the burden of pattern-identification on me. Besides, I do dozens of these kinds of tasks every day. Copy and paste and the use of templates is what I already do for most of these things. (I don't have time to create macros for all my repetitive tasks.)

I'm ready for the computer to pick up some of the slack, and now it appears that the computer might be getting ready to do so.

Also, the ability of machines to recognize patterns and do reasoning on the fly will have a lot to do with how long it takes us to get to cars that drives themselves and other future essentials.

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Item 5
The Secrets of Sleep

Many intriguing studies in both humans and animals suggest that the sleeping brain does something to solidify memories and process newly learned lessons. The brain work of sleep may even allow people to form insights that they can't achieve while awake, according to research that gives new weight to the old notion of taking a tough problem and "sleeping on it." With most Americans routinely getting far less sleep than they should, some experts are starting to wonder if widespread sleep deprivation is having a real but unrecognized effect on society's brainpower and creativity.

Why this is good news:

Forewarned is forearmed, people. Why are you still reading this? Go get some shut-eye.

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Posted by Phil at May 11, 2004 08:22 AM | TrackBack