The Speculist

Earthquake Prediction Update

Speculist reader Mona Toyama has provided a couple of updates on last month's entry on Yoshio Kushida, a Japanese astronomer who claims to be able to predict earthquakes by monitoring radio waves in the FM band. Mona sent this report last week:

Mr. Kushida predicted an earthquake in the Tokyo area for around September 20th, I believe. There was one at 4 in the morning. It wasn't as big as he had predicted but it shook our house up in Tokyo and knocked over a Chinese panel. He didn't predict the one off the coast of Hokkaido because the point of origin was too deep and if it's too deep he can't pick up any FM air waves. He has predicted a very big quake for the Tokyo area on October 16 or 17th plus or minus 2 days. That means from Tuesday, October 14 through Sunday the 19th. If it doesn't occur then, he believes a big one will occur at the end of October. He has been 80% correct in his quake predictions that were a magnitude of 5 or over.

And she has just provided this update:

Earthquake prediction correction We misread the dates for the earthquake prediction--it's not going on now. This is it: October 30 plus or minus 2 days for magnitude 7.2 plus or minus 0.2. Kushida has made this prediction based on measuring the FM waves in the atmosphere. He didn't predict the one that hit Hokkaido last month because according to him, the epicenter was too deep, and FM waves weren't registered/picked up by his equipment. Other scientists in Japan are poo-pooing his prediction, saying that you cannot predict earthquakes. He did predict the one in Tokyo last month, but it wasn't as big as he'd predicted. Hopefully there will be no big earthquake this month. That's all for now.

Kushida's technique for predicting earthquakes will be a major breakthrough if proved right, but I sure hope he's wrong that a 7.2 earthquake is about to hit Tokyo.

Thanks for the update, Mona. By all means, keep us posted.