Let's do a quick comparison of headlines.
From today:
Strong
Quake Injures Hundreds in Japan
From last week (via Transterrestrial Musings):
Astronomer
Predicts Major Earthquake for Japan, Other Experts Express Doubts
Here's some of the story:
TOKYO (AP) _ A Japanese researcher is causing a stir in Tokyo with a prediction based on his study of radio waves that a major destructive earthquake is highly likely to hit the city this week.
Yoshio Kushida, a well-known self-taught astronomer who runs his own observatory just outside Tokyo, published on its Internet site his prediction that a quake with a magnitude of 7 or greater was likely to strike the metropolitan area on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Yukio Misumi, a spokesman for the Central Meteorological Agency, said he was familiar with Kushida's prediction but added that the agency was not doing anything in particular in response to it.
``Our stance is that we are prepared for a magnitude-8 quake in Japan,'' he said. ``But presently, there is no scientific method or technology that would allow us to predict where or when a magnitude-7 might occur. We can't predict earthquakes.''
Well obviously you can't.
Kushida, on the other hand, might be on to something. It could just be an odd
coincidence, of course. But I bet the next time Kushida says there's going to
be an earthquake, Japanese officials are going to pay more attention.
I picked up on that story via the Daily Grail the other day. Surprised to hear about the quake the next day...Kushida must be walking on air right now!
Posted by: rick at September 26, 2003 09:12 AMEr, wasn't this earthquake located some 500 miles north of Tokyo, on another island (Hokkaido) entirely? Was Tokyo affected at all? Kushida's timing was good, but his geographic specificity is a little off.
Posted by: Robert Beck at September 26, 2003 10:53 AMRobert,
You're right about a problem with specificity. Still, to be able to predict a severe earthquake within a week (if that's what actually happened), even within a 500 mile radius, is pretty impressive.
Posted by: Phil at September 26, 2003 11:05 AMPhil,
Point taken! It would be nice to see further info on Kushida's methods and his (future) track record.
I got to agree with Robert. Does this guy make a prediction every week or is this the first time? I suspect it's somewhere in between. Remember the two rules of predicting the future. Make lots of predictions and remind people of your predictions only when you're right.
Posted by: Karl Hallowell at September 26, 2003 08:32 PMI don't know what this fellow's record is, but his prediction was sufficiently rare, and his credibility sufficiently strong, that this prediction garnered a headline on Astronomy.com week before last. His predictions would presumably not get much coverage if he made one every week.
Also it was Rand Simberg, not Kushida himself, who put out the reminder about the prediction after the earthquake happened.
Posted by: Phil at September 27, 2003 05:44 AMPhil, I think I'll check into this then. Being off somewhat in distance and extremely little in time isn't a serious issue.
Posted by: Karl Hallowell at September 27, 2003 10:39 AMMr. Kushida predicted an earthquake in the Tokyo
area for around September 20th, I believe. There was one at 4 in the morning. It wasn't as big as he had predicted but it shook our house up in Tokyo and knocked over a Chinese panel. He didn't
predict the one off the coast of Hokkaido because
the point of origin was too deep and if it's too
deep he can't pick up any FM air waves.
He has predicted a very big quake for the Tokyo
area on October 16 or 17th plus or minus 2 days.
That means from Tuesday, October 14 through Sunday
the 19th. If it doesn't occur then, he believes a big one will occur at the end of October.
He has been 80% correct in his quake predictions that were a magnitude of 5 or over.
Earthquake prediction correction
We misread the dates for the earthquake prediction--it's not going on now.
This is it: October 30 plus or minus 2 days for magnitude 7.2 plus or minus 0.2.
Kushida has made this prediction based on measuring the FM waves in the
atmosphere. He didn't predict the one that hit Hokkaido last month because
according to him, the epicenter was too deep, and FM
waves weren't registered/picked up by his equipment. Other scientists in
Japan are poo-pooing his prediction, saying that you cannot predict earthquakes. He
did predict the one in Tokyo last month, but it wasn't as big as he'd predicted. Hopefully there
will be no big earthquake this month. That's all for now.
There will be a major earthquake in California and Baja in the next few weeks- no later than three months from this date.
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