June 10, 2004
Better All The Time #13
Welcome to our lucky 13th edition of "Better all the Time." Grab your lucky horseshoe, rabbits foot, or four-leaf clover and join us!
- Quote of the Day
- First Treatable, Then Curable
- Will Gibson and Glover Be Available for the Movie?
- Are We Not Men? We Love Tivo
- Tiny Robots in Your Bloodstream
- Ding, Dong the Grey Goo's Dead
- These Fingerprints Are No Myth
- This Might Get Even Us Back to School
Quote of the Day II
Above all, we must realize that no arsenal, or no weapon in the arsenals of the world, is so formidable as the will and moral courage of free men and women. It is a weapon our adversaries in today's world do not have.
-- Ronald Reagan
I guess that I just don't feel that way. I've watched people I love age and die, and it wasn't "beautiful and natural." It sucked. Aging is a disease. Cataracts and liver spots don't bring moral enlightenment or spiritual transcendence. Death may be natural -- but so are smallpox, rape, and athlete's foot. "Natural" isn't the same as "good."
As far as I'm concerned, I'd rather see my tax dollars spent on longevity research than, well, most of the other things they're spent on. I wonder how many other people feel that way.
Well, you've got two of them right here, Glenn. And there are many others besides. Keep fighting the good fight.
Also, that idea about how death sucks really resonates...
Item 1
Drugs May Turn Cancer Into Manageable Disease
Brett Smith, the father of two young children, was only 26 three years ago when he was found to have advanced melanoma, a deadly skin cancer. Several drugs failed to stop the cancer, while leaving him frail, depleted and ill.
But two years ago, Mr. Smith began taking an experimental pill along with chemotherapy, and his tumors disappeared. He dropped the chemotherapy nearly a year ago but still takes the pill twice a day. And his disease, though it may return one day, is still at bay.
The pill Mr. Smith takes, known by the awkward code name BAY 43-9006, could reach the market in one to three years. It is one of a new generation of "targeted" therapies that are transforming cancer treatment by attacking the underlying molecular mechanisms of the disease.
The good news:
Good news on the cancer front is good news for all of us. Rates of contraction of various forms of the disease have been on a steady rise for some time. We believe, however, that the growth rate of cancer is no match for the speed with which new developments are being made to combat the disease. We very much expect to live to see the end of the cancer threat.
Prediction:
Within our lifetimes, most forms of cancer will be either eliminated outright or relegated to a treatable condition that people can live with. Best-case: cancer is gone altogether. Worst case: some people live with cancer the way people currently live with diabetes.
Also...
This is a very interesting approach: "attacking the underlying molecular mechanisms of the disease." See Item Four, below, for an overview of the next generation of weapons we will have for carrying out such an attack.
Item 2
Nonlethal Weapons
Test subjects can't see the invisible beam from the Pentagon's new, Star Trek-like weapon, but no one has withstood the pain it produces for more than three seconds. People who volunteered to stand in front of the directed energy beam say they felt as if they were on fire. When they stepped aside, the pain disappeared instantly.
[The beam] is among the most potent of a new generation of futuristic, "less-than-lethal" weapons being developed by the Defense Department - tools that could dramatically alter the way police control riots and soldiers fight wars.
The good news:
A weapon such as this could be particularly useful in close quarter combat. Imagine how useful this weapon would be in a hostage rescue opperation or in other instances where there is a high risk of friendly fire.
The downside:
Just because it's harmless doesn't mean we want to experience being shot with one of these things. The very fact that it leaves no evidence of trauma could increase the likelihood that it is misused as an instrument of torture.
Anyway...
The availability of nonlethal weapons could have some interesting implications for the gun control debate. The linked article doesn't have much to say about individual weapons; the weapons described are more the combat or crowd-control variety. But assuming that a viable nonlethal alternative to the handgun could be developed, think of the benefits:
Gun advocates would be able to promote an alternative means of self-sefense lacking the dangerous downsides of handguns.
Gun control advocates could sleep soundly at night knowing that the new proliferation of weapons would help ensure that no one is going to get killed.
Yes, there would be risks. And there would definitely be potential for abuse. But a de-stigmatized, nonlethal alternative to the handgun could go along way toward making us safer from the bad guys and (if need be) ourselves.
Item 3
New Service by TiVo Will Build Bridges From Internet to the TV
The Internet, in jumping past the personal computer and into the living room television set, is starting to give viewers the possibility of bypassing traditional cable and satellite services.
TiVo, the maker of a popular digital video recorder, plans to announce a new set of Internet-based services today that will further blur the line between programming delivered over traditional cable and satellite channels and content from the Internet. It is just one of a growing group of large and small companies that are looking at high-speed Internet to deliver video content to the living room.
The good news:
Stand-alone Internet devices have not been as successful as computers. Just as the Internet became an added function for computers in the early 90's, Internet on TV has a better chance of success as an added function to another device like TiVo or Playstation than as a stand-alone device such as WebTV.
This could prove to be the video version of iTunes. In addition to providing a much-needed legal aspect to the practice of downloading movies on the Internet, we suspect that the Tivo service will prove slightly more efficient than the alternatives. For example, it has been reported that Kazaa user spent nearly three weeks trying to download an episode of Mystery Science Theatre 3000 before suffering some kind of breakdown — he referred to it as "having an epiphany."
He now lives on a communal farm in Oregan where he carves figurines from soap. Organic soap.
Further Good News:
More fun toys for all you video geeks out there.
How's that?
Okay..all us video geeks. Jeez, this whole "full disclosure" thing gets awfully tiresome.
The downside...
Bad news for anyone who happens to be married to a video geek and who doesn't share the passion. Sorry, folks. Maybe you'd like to take up a hobby. Soap carving, anyone?
Item 4
Cell Repair Nanorobot Design And Simulation
A new Russian study by Svidinenko Yuri simulates cell-repair nanorobots. Yuri has generated several models based on the book Nanomedicine by Robert A. Freitas Jr.
The good news:
As we reported in Item 1, above, making repairs at the molecular level may very well be the key to fixing cancer (and, perhaps, aging). Nanomedicine advocates also believe that molecular repairs will be the solution to such diverse conditions as tooth decay and heart disease. Here's a picture of the doctor of the future:
The downside:
For now, alas, it is only an artist's conception. But stay tuned.
Obscure Reference that Shows our Age:
Cool! This is going to be just like Fantastic Voyage, only without the tiny Raquel Welch!
Item 5
Speaking of Tiny Robots...
Eric Drexler, known as the father of nanotechnology, published a paper on Wednesday that admits that self-replicating machines are not vital for large-scale molecular manufacture, and that nanotechnology-based fabrication can be thoroughly non-biological and inherently safe.
Talk of runaway self-replicating machines, or “grey goo”, which he first cautioned against in his book Engines of Creation in 1986, has spurred fears that have long hampered rational public debate about nanotechnology. Writing in the Institute of Physics journal Nanotechnology, Drexler slays the myth that molecular manufacture must use dangerous self-replicating machines.
The good news:
...comes in two parts. First, it's good news that we can benefit from molecular manufacturing without the self-replicating assemblers that some skeptics still say are impossible or impractical (but see this recent study that indicates otherwise).
Second, the very fact that we can exploit the nanocosm without self-replicating assemblers will allow us all to give our “grey goo” worries a rest.
The downside:
Bill Joy and Prince Charles will no doubt find something new to worry about.
Anyway...
Publishing this paper is a stroke of genius on Drexler's part. Rather than continuing to argue about the feasibility of self-replication (in fact, the Foresight Institute has been talking in terms of non-self-replicating assemblers for some time now), he has made what is viewed as a concession, thus "changing the subject" in the ongoing dialog about nanotechnology. Instead of more coverage of grey goo and other nightmare scenarios, we might begin to see more serious coverage of this developing field in the mainstream media.
Item 6
Genetic fingerprints will help extend life
A drop of blood from a thumbprick will be enough to test 10,000 elements of our health a decade or two from now, says a leading scientist.
A pioneer of the US biotechnology industry, Dr Leroy Hood, told the Bio 2004 conference in San Francisco yesterday that scientists would soon be able to spot the genetic fingerprints of most ailments by running that drop of blood through a computer.
Six-monthly genetic checkups would warn of the susceptibility to diseases such as heart disease, allowing people to take cholesterol-thinning pills and change their diet long before the at-risk age for heart attacks.
It would also catch cancer and other slow-growth diseases early enough to allow treatment.
"My prediction is that, if this comes through over the next 30 years or so, we will see an enormous elongation of perhaps 10 to 20 years in the productive lifespan of each individual," he said.
The good news:
Let's review. Cancer is now much more treatable than it used to be. New technologies may soon provide much more effective ways of addressing cancer at the molecular level. Those technologies are more likely to be developed now that an ongoing smear job against them has been discredited. And if none of that is enough for you, we now read that a drop of your blood may soon add 10 to 20 years to your life, independent of any of the above.
And that's just one day's worth of developments.
You know, we're actually starting to feel kinda sorry for the people who don't recognize that the world is getting better and better. What are they...delusional?
Item 7
Earn Your PhD While Playing Games
Yes, it is possible to get a PhD while playing games, at least if you're studying at the University of Southern California. In "A PhD in Mortal Kombat" (free registration needed), the Los Angeles Times reports today that a "pioneering USC group tries to get into the heads of players to learn if the pastime harms or can help." The Annenberg Studies on Computer Games is a 20-person multidisciplinary group which studies "the impact of computer game-playing on individuals, groups, and society at large." The group wants to understand how some players become "addicted" to gaming. The students will also investigate why some gamers develop "anti-social" behavior while others see an improvement of their interpersonal skills.
The good news:
Academic credit for goofing off. It doesn't get any sweeter than that.
The downside:
We're guessing the hours we've already put into these games won't count toward "life experience" credit.
Anyway...
It's good fodder for Grumpy Old Man-style complaints.
"In my day, we didn't get school credit for playing com-puter games. We etched out our calculus assignments on tiny little slates with only piece of chalk to share among the whole class. And we liked it!"
Better All The Time is compiled by Phil Bowermaster and Stephen Gordon. Special thanks to Kurzweil AI for making it so easy to find good news.
It's morning in America!
Hurry up and start writing your dissertation on Blogology, Phil. Before some big Think Tank takes credit for the idea.
Posted by: Kathy at June 10, 2004 07:01 PMRe: Item #4
No Raquel Welch?!?! That's a pretty major downside, wouldn't you say?
Posted by: Roy at June 11, 2004 01:07 PMOn the 'gray goo' fear: it's already happened, about four billion years ago. ;)
Posted by: Alexander at June 11, 2004 01:45 PMKathy -
Huh? This is my disseration. Now all I have to do is find the appropriate chumps -- I mean institution of higher learning -- to give me a doctorate for it.
Roy -
You're absolutely right. I should have said "...only without the tiny Donald Pleasance."
Alexander -
Good point. But technically, I think that was green goo.
Phil-
Well it's green to you, to me it's grey. ;)
Sorry, had to make fun of my color-deficiency.
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