While I don't normally do politics on this site, I don't mind the occasional foray into simple arithmetic. I've now read in a couple of places how amazing it is that Schwarzenegger and McClintock took a "majority" in yesterday's recall election. That's a delusional reading of the numbers.
Let's go through it real quick. The recall won with 54.2% of the vote. Of that 54.2% (not of the total votes cast) Arnold won 47.6. So that's 47.6% of 54.2%, or about 25.8% of the votes cast. McClintock won 13.2% of 54.2%, which comes out to about 7.2% of the votes cast. So, all told, the Republicans took a respectable 33% of the total votes cast, compared to 45.8% of the votes cast against the recall, effectively in favor of Gray Davis.
I don't think things have changed as much as the Pundits want to make out. There was no Republican majority, and more people voted for Davis than voted for both Republicans combined. If you combine the Davis and Bustamante votes, you get 45.8% plus 32.7% of 54.2% (about 17.72% of the toal votes cast) which comes out to 63.52%. The majority of voters voted for a Democrat.
None of this is to take anything away from Arnold's victory. But let's not have any nonsense about a Republican majority in California. The numbers don't support it.
UPDATE: I'm an idiot. (Yes, that is too an update. It's a Major News Flash, in fact.) I had this silly idea that if you voted no on the recall, you didn't get to pick a recall candidate. Reader JimO the Bunkbuster has graciously set me straight. See comments, below.
So everything I said about being delusional, etc. — well, they're rubber. I'm glue. All right?
Posted by Phil at October 8, 2003 06:34 AM | TrackBack
Trust your instincts in the future, and continue to produce the insights that we blogophiles respect you for! But as to elections, here's the numbers:
Total votes on recall, 7,665,000, split the way you reported.
Total votes on 'preferences', 7,229,000 plus 'noise', split the way you reported.
Apparently only about 400,000 voters said 'NO recall' and then did NOT give a preference.
You assumed that the preference percentages were ONLY from those who voted 'NO', but as it turns out, most of those who voted 'NO' also voted for a preference.
Your loyal reader,
JimO the Bunkbuster
Posted by: Jim O at October 8, 2003 10:09 AMYou assumed that the preference percentages were ONLY from those who voted 'NO', but as it turns out, most of those who voted 'NO' also voted for a preference.
Ah, so that's it. You could vote no on the recall and then select a favorite recall candidate. I get it. So maybe there was a Republican majority after all.
In the immortal words of Emily Litella...
Never mind.
Posted by: Phil at October 8, 2003 10:21 AM5126 Get your online poker fix at http://www.onlinepoker-dot.com
Posted by: poker at August 15, 2004 08:35 PM